To eliminate systemic preexisting time trends that may have undermined our difference-in-differences approach, we estimated an “event study” regression for the effectation of Medicaid expansion from the range loans. This tested the legitimacy of our presumption that payday borrowing might have had comparable styles in expansion and nonexpansion counties if none regarding the counties had expanded Medicaid. The regression included a set impact for virtually any county, a fixed effect for each month, and indicators for four six-month durations before Medicaid expansion and three six-month durations after expansion (see Appendix Exhibit A8). 16
Limitations
Our research had not been in a position to straight connect specific insurance coverage status to payday borrowing; to the knowledge, the info to do so usually http://www.tennesseepaydayloans.net/ do not exist.
Furthermore, although we discovered no proof of this, we’re able to perhaps not rule the possibility out that state- or county-level alterations in the legislation (or enforcement of laws) of pay day loans or any other industry modifications may have took place Ca within the duration 2010–14. Nevertheless, we tested the appropriateness of our approach in a number of methods. First, we stratified our models by generation (individuals more youthful or avove the age of age sixty-five): those who work in younger team will be beneficiaries regarding the Medicaid expansion, while those in the older group wouldn’t normally, given that they will be entitled to Medicare. 2nd, we examined just how alterations in payday financing diverse aided by the share of uninsured individuals within the county before expansion: we might be prepared to find a larger lowering of payday financing in areas with greater stocks compared to areas with reduced stocks. Our extra methodology supplied evidence that is reassuring our findings were attributable to the Medicaid expansion.
aClustered in the county degree.
Display 4 shows the end result of Medicaid in the repayment results of payday advances, our additional results; the table that is accompanying in Appendix Exhibit A6. 16 We discovered a proportionally big and significant postexpansion enhance of 0.5 portion points within the share of defaults, from a preexpansion mean of 3 %. There clearly was a change that is marginally significant the share of belated repayments and an important boost in rollovers, which had a top preexpansion mean (50 per cent associated with loans) and a postexpansion enhance of very nearly 3 portion points.
Exhibit 4 aftereffect of very early expansion of eligibility for Medicaid regarding the repayment results of pay day loans for borrowers under age 65, 2009–13
You should notice that the interpretation associated with the effectation of expanding Medicaid is less simple when it comes to additional results compared to the main results. Since we observed a decline in general loan amount, Medicaid expansion might have changed the kinds of individuals who took away loans that are payday. We’re able to perhaps not differentiate amongst the influence on the kinds of borrowers and an effect of on reducing standard, belated payment, or rollover prices across all borrower kinds.
Appendix Exhibit A7 presents the outcomes of our sensitiveness analyses for borrowers more than age sixty-five. 16 As noted above, we examined loan that is payday stratified for individuals for the reason that generation in addition to performing a triple-difference analysis of county-month-age (younger or over the age of age sixty-five). We discovered tiny but increases that are significant payday amount on the list of older borrowers. Whenever we utilized those borrowers as an extra within-state control team, we had triple-difference quotes that have been approximately comparable, though slightly bigger in magnitude, as compared to difference-in-differences quotes in display 1. This suggests that our main estimates might be slight underestimates of the effects of Medicaid expansion on payday loan volume to the extent that the effects on the older population captured unobserved, latent trends in expansion counties.
